The new Baker Tilly TPA publication, “2030 on the horizon: EU climate targets vs. the Polish realities of the transition”, breaks down the energy transition into its component parts, from regulatory targets to concrete figures on capacity, investment, and energy consumption in Poland.
The authors analyze Poland’s National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK) under the active transformation scenario (WAM), which is designed to deliver the EU targets. In the power sector, the plan assumes a 51.8% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030, alongside an increase in domestic generation from 169 TWh in 2024 to 194 TWh in 2030. In the transportation sector, the expected renewable energy share is 18.9% (including multipliers), alongside significant growth in the electric vehicle fleet. The heating and cooling sector aims to achieve 36.7% renewables target through heat pumps, biomethane, biogas, hydrogen, and biomass.
Transportation: electromobility as the main carrier of renewables
Poland is expected to reach an 18.9% renewable energy share (including multipliers) in transport by 2030. The KPEiK assumes the following:
- growth of the passenger electric car fleet to approximately 721,000 vehicles,
- growth in the number of electric vans and trucks to approximately 68,000;
- expansion of charging infrastructure, including high-power stations for heavy-duty transport;
- The plan also anticipates a significant role for subsidies, such as the “NaszEauto” program, and ETS 2, which will increase the cost of fossil fuels.
Technical and regulatory constraints limit the potential to increase the share of biofuels, so the burden of meeting the target shifts to electromobility and, in the long term, to hydrogen in heavy-duty transportation.
Will the current pace of the electric vehicle (EV) market be enough to meet the 2030 targets? Read our analysis.
Heating and cooling: heat pumps and green gases
The heating and cooling target is 36.7% renewables by 2030 (up from 20.2% in 2023). This will be achieved through similar contributions from:
- heat pumps,
- biomethane/biogas/hydrogen,
- solid biomass.
The plan anticipates approximately 1.7 million heat pumps by 2030 and nearly 4 million by 2040, necessitating an annual increase of around 200,000 units — equivalent to the record-breaking year of 2022.
Meanwhile:
- in 2024, heat pump sales fell by approx. 35% (high electricity prices, installation quality issues, suspension of the “Clean Air” programme),
- the market is recovering — in H1 2025, sales of heat pumps for space heating rose by 27% y/y,
- the industry is calling for stable support schemes and preferential tariffs (e.g., reduced VAT), which, however, clashes with a high budget deficit.
As for power generation, the goal is to generate over 50% of electricity from renewables by 2030.
The 2030 target is:
- 51.8% renewables share in electricity generation,
- an increase in electricity production from 169 TWh (2024) to 194 TWh (2030),
- a major capacity build-out: +9.3 GW solar PV, +5.3 GW onshore wind, +5.9 GW offshore wind, approx. 2.8 GW of energy storage,
- at the same time, a reduction in coal capacity by 8.4 GW and an increase in gas capacity by 5.7 GW.
This scenario resembles today’s Germany, but with Poland being more dependent on gas and energy storage and less dependent on hydro and biomass. The feasibility of this scenario hinges on the pace of grid connections for new installations, the expansion of transmission and distribution networks, and the development of the energy storage market.
Would you like to see detailed charts comparing Poland’s 2030 energy mix to Germany’s in 2024, as well as energy storage usage scenarios?
